Questions, Questions, Questions 3
by Philly ~ October 3rd, 2008Well, it’s Friday again already, time for another installment in my questions series. Better get started:
Q & A: 3 October 2008: Housing Inflation
Question: Larry wrote in with this one, thanks Larry and to all others who take the time to ask:
Maayong Buntag
From what I have read about moving to the Philippines it is by far better to rent. Almost all expats will tell you this. The only reason I could see in buying is to hedge against inflation. The thing is that I have been noticing rampant inflation in the Philippines on almost everything but housing. The price of houses and property seem to be going up but at a much slower pace than say food or petro. The rate housing in the Philippines seem to be going up is much slower than the return on investments. Could I get your assessment on the rate of inflation on housing in the Philippines?
Answer: It is very hard for me to give an overview on Philippine inflation that speaks with any authority. I spend little and do not participate actively in the real estate market. But the world is certainly entitled to my opinuion, so here it is ;) Dave’s opinion is, a single family house that you plan t live in is a liability, not an asset. It produces nothing and is never guaranteed to go up in value.
It is true that you must live somewhere, so depending upon the ‘numbers’ and your personal preferences it may make more sense to buy than to rent, but buying a house as a hedge against inflation strickes me as a poor way to invest. If you want a hedge against inflation, buy shares of stock in companies that actually produce something of value … yes, even today … anyone want to bet that Warren Buffett is dumb in buying up General Electric at bargain basenent prices, for example?
General Electric powers the world’s electric utilities, railroads and airlines … they actually produce product which is unlikely to evr suffer long-term drops in demand, so there is a money for future value equation.
A single family house may be worth more than what you paid for it years down the ‘pike .. or it may not. Unlike something that produces consumable goods for value, a single family house produces nothing and consumes a lot over the years. Philippine tax laws, especially capital gains taxes, are nothing at all like the US, where buying and selling houses are virtually non-tax events for home owners. (and of course you will be subject to Philippine capital gains and value added taxes even as a foreigner … you can’t escape taxation by the Philippines for transactions within the Philippines as you can with outside the Philippines income/profits).
In the two years I have been living here I have had my ‘eye on’ three houses in my local community that I would be happy living in. All were already for sale when I arrived. All are in the 4 to 5 million pesos asking price range. All are also occupied by caretakers as the owners are elsewhere already … thus the monthly costs for keeping these homes ‘alive’ are all in the red as far as benefits to the owners. (You can not, by the way, safely leave a house unoccupied here, it will likely become occupied by squatters and getting them out could prove expensive, problematical and even deadly if you try to throw your weight around.)
Last month, one of the three sold for 2.8 million. Would you want to be the owner of one of the other homes waiting more than 2 years to get nothing, or would you rather be the owner of the one that just sold at about a 30% discount? Frankly neither situation holds much attraction to me.
Places where a lot of expats congregate … Angeles City is near me and a good example … are just loaded with very attractive homes built … even overbuilt .. by foreigners and now for sale at greatly discounted prices. The type of home that most middle class Americans would lkely build here is way too much house for the very tiny Philippine middle class and the Filipino rich are highly unlikely to buy in other than exclusive”way, way spendy” areas that midedle class Americans can’t afford.
You are likely to get stuck waiting for another willing American to come along if you want to unload it. Houses that buy and sell readily here in the Metro Manila area are not what the average foreigner wants to live in.
I realize that is a lot of words for a pretty non-definitive answer, but in the long run it is all up to each individual anyway … if you want to buy a home as aplace for you and your family to live, for your kids to grow up in, more power to you … but a house as an investment? There are no guarantees, good or bad.
Commercial real estate is another story completely … I’ve written about it here before and likely will write more. You might like It Can Be Done or It Can Be Done —Part 2