Here’s a recent news story which I would like to believe:

RP may import ‘much less’ rice for 2009

The Philippines, the world’s biggest rice importer this year, (my emphasis) may buy much less of the grain for 2009 barring any major production problems, a senior official said on Friday.

The Southeast Asian country’s purchase of 2.3 million tons of rice in 2008, rather than its more typical 1-2 million tons, helped drive benchmark rice prices to a record high in May. "I think if we meet all the targets, total imports for next year would be much lower than this year," Percy Manzo, assistant secretary at the agriculture department, told Reuters, without giving any numbers.

"I’m not discounting the possibility of importing but I’m saying we would be importing much, much less than what we had imported this year unless there’s a major calamity," added Manzo.

The Philippines typically imports about 10 percent of its annual rice requirements to fill a gap in domestic production and boost stocks ahead of the seasonally lean third quarter.

Under the agriculture department’s rice self-sufficiency plan, unmilled rice production is expected to reach 18.5 million tons in 2009 and 19.8 million tons in 2010, from a target of 17.3 million tons this year.

Manzo, who heads the inter-agency committee that evaluates domestic rice output and stocks, said import needs may be known by November at the earliest, when output data for the third quarter would be available.

Prices of the grain have stabilized after some producing countries relaxed export restrictions, with benchmark Thai rice steady at $700 per ton after peaking above $1,000 per ton in May.

Manzo said the country’s rice inventory looks good with "close to 90 days" worth of consumption available at the start of the lean season in July.

"I don’t think we will be having any more supply problems until the end of the year." (again, my emphasis … the under secretary noted a 90 day supply and probably he has looked at his calendar and determined that the"end of the year" is now about 90 days away.  Apparently the plan is to do nothing and have another crisis by year-end … his words, not mine.)

The agriculture department is targeting to produce 17.3 million tons of unmilled rice this year but rising fertilizer costs may limit output to just under 17 million tons.

Manzo said there is an ongoing review of the government’s rice self-sufficiency target to take into account the impact of high fertilizer costs, recent typhoons as well as the availability of state funds on production.

The Philippines was earlier hoping to achieve 100 percent rice self-sufficiency by 2010 but had to push it back to 2013 (again, my thoughts.  Rice takes 5 months to come to harvest, not five years!) given budgetary constraints and recent storms that have hit rice fields.

The review is meant to make the previous assumptions "more realistic," Source article on Philippine rice shortfalls here.

Not many years back, the Philippines was the "rice bowl" of Asia.  The International Rice research Institute (IRRI) in Los Banos, is arguably the world’s leading repository of expertise on the production and breeding improvements of rice.  They are not only nationally known for their work, but are directly responsible for the nation of Vietnam … a war-torn land of devastation 40 years ago taking over the position of the Philippines as the country who decides who eats, and at what cost.

I am totally mystified and blown away by the way the food business is handled here.  The government seems to make the case that production of food for the people is a net loss venture that has to be financed by loans and wishful thinking.  friends, in today’s Internet, stock options world people tend to forget something …agriculture is profitable … and people have to eat.  Exporting another 600,000 maids to Saudi Arabia won’t feed babies here in the Philippines.

The cost of fertilizer (as the big excuse offered) does not enable or prevent the production of rice.  It affects the gross profit from a given crop but even with no fertilizer rice will be produced and people will eat … if someone plants it!

There are millions of Filipinos who need work.  there are millions of hectares of potentially productive land sitting fallow, apparently waiting for the government to tell people. "Hey, if you want to eat next year, why not plant some rice now"?

I was going to make the comment that this isn’t "rocket science" put perhaps it is.  basic rice production requires nothing more than the use of a piece of land for 6 months, a hoe or a carabao and the idea that the former world’s largest producer of rice should not now be the world’s largest beggar.  Makes me sad.

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